I will freely admit that I have enjoyed the past couple months immensely. Folks in the Mid Atlantic have experienced probably the most spectacular, extended stretch of weather of their life in this region. Deep blue, cloudless skies almost every day. Comfortable, warm afternoons giving way to cool evenings and pleasant sleeping weather. Frost-free car windshields. Dry turf to walk the dog in the morning — clogs not necessary, nor subsequent washing of paws. For gardeners, the extension of tomato and pepper season into November has been surreal. Aside from a couple light frosts that offered quiet reminders that summer is over, it has felt more like May and early June most days, except without the spring rains.
Of course, there is a dark side to all of this extended summer fun. We are now experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. The soil is parched. Everything is covered in a thin film of dust. Reservoir and river levels are low; some small ponds are dry. Shallower wells might be threatened soon. Wildlife is stressed. The fire threat is real, with sirens in the distance most days.
We’ve had our fun. We need rain now — substantial rain, followed by healthy winter snow pack, which we have not seen for a few years.
I am writing today to let you know that some modest relief is on the way, and a shift in the weather pattern that has been brewing will likely take hold in the east, as we move through November. It is impossible to know if this shift will gather momentum and supply the copious moisture that we really need. But it does seem likely that we will at least return to more normal moisture levels and more seasonable (read: much colder) temperatures in the near future.
Let’s dive right in. First, the short term. Here’s a radar image (not a model) of the Lower 48 on Friday night (11/8/24).
That’s a healthy storm in the middle of the country. And while it will do what other recent storms have done — that is, veer well to our north and west — we have a welcome twist this time, in the form of Tropical Storm Rafael. Rafael doesn’t show up on this radar, but it is spinning through the Gulf of Mexico. Some of its moisture will become entrained in the trailing cold front of the storm currently over Kansas, and is headed directly at the Mid Atlantic. Current forecasts indicate modest rainfall, something under half an inch. That isn’t a lot, but it will seem like a monsoon relative to recent experience. And because the source air mass is tropical, there is always the chance that it could overperform.
After what’s left of Rafael exits stage right (I think I mean “left”? — stage performance was never my thing), modeling indicates that cool high pressure from Canada will settle into the east for the first half of the week. By Thursday, a storm that will be traversing Canada is scheduled to drag a cold front across our region. For a while, models suggested that it would bring more moisture through the region. I never bought into that. As I expected, the rain event for Thursday 11/14 is disappearing quickly from forecasts. Let’s hope it reappears, and the event for 11/10 also gets a little juicier.
The challenge we’ve had for months now is very persistent high pressure off the eastern seaboard — the classic “Bermuda High”. This is the typical pattern for summer in the east, but it has been unusually strong this year, deflecting all storms with ideas elsewhere. We are experiencing it again on this fine Saturday, as you can see in the image below.
But it appears that the reign of this unusual feature will finally begin to wane, as a more wintry pattern begins to take hold through the rest of the month. The fun begins this weekend, as that slug of tropical moisture passes through the region. This will open the door to a more active northern jet stream. Next week will be a transition period, with a period of cooler, more seasonable temperatures, though still dry. The Atlantic high pressure won’t give up just yet, but, by the end of next week, it will begin to deflect south and east, as northern features begin to assert themselves.
NOTE: Real meteorologists should suppress their nausea here, as I mix maps and radars and atmospheric regimes — I understand. But this isn’t a weather blog, despite appearances. My goal is to give non-weather geeks some general idea of what is happening and will likely happen.
All of this is a prelude to a major change that the American model has been insisting will occur in the 11/20-ish time frame. For this, we must move to a more geeky weather chart, to appreciate what might be on the way. Here’s a 500 MB chart for that time frame — that’s lingo for “way up high”:
So that’s a major invasion of air whose origin story is way up in northern Canada. If this happens, winter officially begins sometime midweek, around 11/20. You don’t need to be a weather nerd to get a general sense that this looks totally different than what we have been experiencing. And that’s because, well, it is. But the important point is that it is normal. The gorgeous weather we have had for months is not normal. Not that you need me to tell you that.
A couple additional points: All that red and yellow stuff in the image is not moisture, like you see on surface radar images. It is an indication of energy in the upper atmosphere, the type of energy that is needed to generate storms. As depicted, there’s a lot of energy in that thar system. And, not surprisingly, the model has been spitting out different solutions for where and what these storms might be. For example, earlier yesterday the model decided to plant a classic snow storm right over us. I include this image strictly for fun, as the model has moved on from this moment of temporary insanity:
The takeaway here is this is almost two weeks away, and these specific forecasts are highly uncertain. But I can say that, when the American model sees this type of activity in the jet stream in the longer term, and sticks with it through multiple model runs, it tends to be onto something. I suspect that its depiction of an invasion of cold air is correct. Could that generate some snow? Sure — anything is possible. Is it likely? No. But with that much energy in the upper atmosphere, and just looking at the general setup, some sort of precipitation event around that time seems like a good bet.
That’s all I have for now. I will keep an eye on things and update as needed. For now, if you’re reading this on Saturday November 9, this would be a good day to take care of any yard work that will benefit from dry weather. I will be building and covering my winter log pile, for example. And stowing all the patio furniture. And shredding a final (?) batch of leaves for composting. What fun…
Enjoy the day!
For more reflections about gardening and the broader life lessons it bestows on us, feel free to check out my online book, Life Lessons of a Backyard Gardener, which I am publishing here, one chapter at a time.