Fall 2024 Weather Reflections
The times they are a-changin'
It’s been a while since my last weather post. Some of that drought is lack of time, and some is the monotonous real-world drought that has gripped the Mid-Atlantic region during the Summer of ‘24. Droughts can be difficult in multiple ways, one of which is that they are boring. Weather posts this summer would have been along the lines of “Hmmm, let me check… yeah, it’s still sunny and dry out there — keep watering.” That doesn’t make for scintillating, gripping copy. But with soon to be Hurricane Helene spinning up in the Gulf as I write, and a significant pattern change to follow on her heels, the time is ripe to opine on Mother Nature returning from summer vacation, ornery from a string of canceled flights and substandard Airbnb’s with hidden cameras.
Incidentally, the American GFS model was on top of Helene well over a week ago. Wait <clears throat>, sorry, that came out wrong. I meant to say that the GFS predicted the impending Gulf hurricane well in advance. I had not been looking at the models a whole lot this summer — because, again, droughts are boring. But I decided to take a look sometime last week, to see if any sign of summer’s end was on the horizon. And, indeed, the model was seeing this monster for late September:
Sure, it was a couple hundred miles west of where the real storm will likely hit, and it was off by a couple days. But, otherwise… wow. Predicting a storm like this ten days in advance is impressive. Give the GFS its props on this one. With any luck, it will make me look like I know what I’m talking about this winter. Sure, most of my snow bunny tendencies have melted over the past decade, but I think we all could use a cold and stormy winter, particularly after a couple duds. Mostly so that everyone would stop sniping about politics — wouldn’t that be nice! I mean, it’s hard to wave your Trump or Harris flag in someone’s face when your hands are frozen on snowblower handles, your eyebrows glazed with sleet, and your toes numb. So I say… Bring it on!
As for the drought this summer, the gardener in me is not inclined to complain. If you have the time to water consistently, the general tranquility combined with the opportunity to micromanage soil moisture levels can produce exceptional gardening seasons. And so it has been with my tomatoes this year — possibly the best crop ever. It’s almost October, and I’m still picking dozens of perfect tomatoes like these:
But enough bragging. Back to the weather.
Large storms tend to usher in pattern changes — or maybe it would be better to say that pattern changes are often associated with large storms? I don’t know. Y’all can argue about the chickens and the eggs. I gleefully eat both and it just doesn’t matter.
What does matter is that the end is nigh for the warm and dry pattern that has gripped the region this summer. Sadly, this glorious tomato season will be coming to an inglorious end in a week or two. Here’s what the GFS is showing for 10/5/24 (minus the magenta scribble, which I deftly added for a human touch and to make it seem authoritative):
In fancy tech terms, the 500 millibar chart is showing a sudden and spectacular reappearance of the northern jet stream. In English, it’s saying “Welcome to fall, suckas!!!” In human terms, if you’re bored with all this sunny and dry summer weather, your suffering is about to end. Yaaassss! Fall finally arrives in a week or two. Time to trade the shorts for sweatpants. Forget those pleasant evenings dining al fresco — prepare to clad yourself in fleece-lined cozy wear and watch The Great British Baking Show huddled on the sofa. If you haven’t had the oil burner cleaned, it’s time. If you’re a gardener, the green beans and second-round cucumbers will be meeting their maker fairly soon. Time to prep those houseplants for the trip indoors. Etc., etc.
Another random thought on the boring, dry summer: You know what doesn’t happen during boring, dry summers? Right — tornadoes. If you’re not from the Mid-Atlantic, you can ask some of your Mid-Atlantic friends about the PTSD they’ve developed over the past five years or so. Tornado watches — let alone warnings and real tornadoes — used to be twenty or thirty year events in these parts. In the old days, during periods of particularly disgusting summer humidity, you could always hear the annoying optimists in the Philly area bleat something like “Yeah, but we don’t have to deal with tornadoes and earthquakes!” Oh, bless their hearts. In recent years, we’ve become accustomed to the cell phone sirens and TV weather babes imploring us to seek shelter. I have to tell you, that gets old. I don’t live in Oklahoma for a reason. Happily, the dry and quiet Summer of ‘24 has proffered some sweet relief. Great tomatoes. Zero tornadoes. That sounds like a win to me.
You could argue that tornadoes have a similar effect as winter storms, in terms of stifling all of the empty political bickering. And I suppose that’s true. I mean, if an F3 came barreling through my neighborhood and tore off a few roofs (and Trump flags and Harris banners…), I imagine that the conversations would skew decidedly practical. But you know what also has that effect? Yes — really good garden tomatoes. Grow some of those, and give some to your neighbors, even the weirdo mutants who don’t share your politics. Then watch what happens. If you have to choose between tomatoes and tornadoes to break the ice, take the tomatoes.
Anyway, enjoy the summer weather while it lasts. The brisk winds of fall will be here soon, at least if the GFS has anything to say about it.